Thunderfront — Military activity (incursions, exercises, production)
35/100
Pressure Drop — Economic warfare (sanctions, stockpiles, capital flight/controls)
35/100
Fog Bank — Rhetoric, propaganda, diplomatic breakdowns
40/100
Lightning Rod — Finance & shipping (insurance, trade finance, unusual flows)
30/100
Homefront Gale — Civil measures (drills, rationing, mobilisation)
20/100
Event toggles
PLA live-fire announced
Quarantine / Coast Guard enforcement
Undersea cable disruption
Airline reroutes / war-risk premiums
Widespread consular warnings
Sustained cyber campaign
Capital controls tightened
Countervailing factors
Allied cohesion & deterrence
55/100
Crisis de-escalation signals
20/100
Model notes
Weights: Thunderfront 0.25, Pressure Drop 0.25, Lightning Rod 0.20, Fog Bank 0.15, Homefront Gale 0.15.
Event adds: live-fire +8, quarantine +10, cables +8, airline/war-risk +6, consular +6, cyber +6, capital controls +6.
Counterweights subtract: cohesion ≤12, de-escalation ≤10. Bands: 0–19 Stable; 20–39 Elevated; 40–59 Watch; 60–79 Warning; 80–100 Imminent.
Barometer level
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Composite score
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Operational risk — shipping/aviation
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Market stress signal
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Comms/infra disruption risk
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Storm meter
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StableWatchWarningImminent
How to use
Pick a preset, adjust a few signals you observe, toggle events, and share the scenario link.