Russia War Economy Scorecard

Adjust the knobs to test scenarios. Educational toy model — not a forecast.

Rail freight trend (YoY %)

-6%

Sanctions severity (enforcement, designations, export controls)

6/10

Shadow fleet & evasion capacity

6/10

Oil revenue hit (discounts/volumes vs pre‑war, %)

40/100

Conflict intensity (manpower draw, rotation strain)

6/10

China/Global South support (goods/finance/backfill)

4/10

National Wealth Fund liquid buffers (USD bn)

$120bn

Repression & controls (FX, labour, media)

6/10

Defence spending (% of GDP)

7.2%

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Months to fiscal crunch

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Real GDP (%, y/y)

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CPI inflation (%, y/y)

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Industrial output (%, y/y)

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Composite score

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ResilientStressedFragileFailing

Model notes

Weights are illustrative. Oil revenue loss and sanctions drive most movement; shadow fleet blunts oil sanctions; rail tracks real activity; buffers and repression slow the slide. Defence spending is anchored to a 7.2% of GDP baseline. Moving above it now has a modest additional effect (shorter runway, slightly weaker GDP, slightly higher CPI, minor drag on industry) to avoid double-counting with sanctions and oil shocks.