Russia War Economy Scorecard

Adjust the knobs to test scenarios. Educational policy-setting model — not a forecast.

Core Variables

Rail freight trend (YoY %)

Real economic activity proxy. Rail volumes track industrial output and supply chain health.

-6%

Sanctions severity (enforcement, designations, export controls)

Western restrictions on financial flows, technology access, and trade. Higher = tighter enforcement.

6/10

Shadow fleet & evasion capacity

Ability to bypass oil sanctions and import restrictions through third countries and opaque shipping networks.

6/10

Oil revenue hit (discounts/volumes vs pre‑war, %)

Lost export income from price caps, discounts to India/China, and volume restrictions. Primary revenue constraint.

40/100

Conflict intensity (manpower draw, rotation strain)

Battlefield tempo, mobilization pressure, and force rotation demands. Compounds labor shortages.

6/10

China/Global South support (goods/finance/backfill)

Trade, component imports, and financial lifelines from non-Western partners. Cushions sanctions impact.

4/10

National Wealth Fund liquid buffers (USD bn)

Accessible fiscal reserves to cover deficits and stabilize currency. Running low as war costs mount.

120bn

Repression & controls (FX, labour, media)

State capacity to suppress dissent, control capital flows, and manage information. Delays crisis visibility.

6/10

Defence spending (% of GDP)

Military budget as share of GDP. Above baseline (7.2%) crowds out civilian investment and accelerates economic strain.

7.2%

High Priority Critical Near-Term Drivers (+4)

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These factors are reaching critical thresholds in 2025 and have immediate, non-linear effects on collapse pathways. Adjust these for realistic near-term scenarios.

Labor market strain (workforce availability)

Unemployment at 2.2%, 4.8M worker shortage. Wage inflation (50% of GDP) crushes profits. Above 7/10 triggers exponential GDP damage.

7/10

Military-industrial capacity utilization (%)

Production doubled/tripled but quality degrading. Above 85% triggers equipment failures, lower efficiency, maintenance crises.

85%

Technology & component access (sanctions circumvention)

Microchips, precision components via third countries. Below 4/10 causes cascading quality collapse and maintenance failures.

5/10

Agricultural output shock (%)

2025 grain production down 18% from 2022. Bad harvests strain fiscal buffers, require imports, lose export revenue.

-12%

Medium Priority Important Multipliers (+5)

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These variables amplify or dampen effects of core drivers. Include them for more sophisticated scenario modeling and to capture second-order effects.

Capital flight pressure (outflow intensity)

$160B/year outflow (8% GDP). Above 7/10 triggers liquidity crisis, investment collapse, banking instability. Accelerates with low NWF.

5/10

Military casualties & rotation capacity

Personnel losses compound labor shortages, affecting battlefield effectiveness and domestic workforce. Creates demographic spiral.

6/10

Western military aid to Ukraine (flow intensity)

Higher aid extends timeline Russia must sustain spending. Compounds attrition effects and increases Russian costs per month.

6/10

Civilian sector vitality (two-speed economy)

Non-war economy health. Military crowding out creates political pressure. Below 3/10 risks domestic unrest.

4/10

Inflation policy stance (CB rate tightness)

Central Bank balancing growth vs price stability. High rates constrain economy but necessary. Interacts with labor costs.

7/10

Advanced Sophisticated Scenarios (+3)

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These variables model edge cases, long-tail risks, and complex political dynamics. Use for expert-level scenario planning and exploring non-obvious collapse pathways.

Regional fragility & territorial cohesion

Ethnic tensions, regionalist movements, elite fractures. Accelerates state collapse once economic stress crosses thresholds.

3/10

Rogue state partnerships (NK/Iran dependencies)

North Korean ammunition, Iranian drones. Higher dependence signals desperation but provides temporary relief from production limits.

5/10

Black swan shock probability

Leadership change, coup, natural disaster, industrial accident. Models tail risks and discontinuous breaks in trajectory.

2/10

Collapse meter

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Composite score

Months to fiscal crunch

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Real GDP (%, y/y)

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CPI inflation (%, y/y)

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Industrial output (%, y/y)

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Model notes & methodology

Core model: Oil revenue loss and sanctions drive most movement; shadow fleet blunts oil sanctions; rail tracks real activity; buffers and repression slow the slide. Defence spending above 7.2% baseline has modest additional effect to avoid double-counting.

High-priority non-linear effects: Labor strain above 7/10 has exponential GDP impact (wage inflation crushing profits). Military capacity above 85% triggers quality degradation. Tech access below 4/10 causes cascading failures. Capital flight above 7/10 triggers liquidity crisis with accelerating effects.

Critical interaction effects: (1) Labor strain × military capacity = production bottleneck multiplier, (2) Capital flight × low NWF = liquidity crisis threshold, (3) Tech access × military capacity = quality vs quantity tradeoff, (4) Casualties × labor strain = demographic death spiral, (5) Civilian vitality collapse × regional fragility = political instability cascade.

Medium-priority variables: Capital flight, casualties, Western aid, civilian vitality, and inflation policy amplify or dampen core effects. Use for sophisticated multi-factor scenarios.

Advanced variables: Regional fragility, rogue partnerships, and black swan risks model edge cases and discontinuous breaks. For expert scenario planning only.

Calibration sources: Labor market data (CBR, 2025), military production constraints (Chatham House, 2025), capital flight estimates ($160B/yr, 2024), agricultural output (Russian govt reports, 2025). All weights are illustrative for educational purposes.